PRODUCT OVERVIEW
- ISBN 9780771070549
- Categories BX, BXOS, Children's Books, NF BIZ, Professor Philip E Tetlock, RM 10 - RM 19.99, Sticker Books
- Author(s) Professor Philip E Tetlock
- Publisher Signal Books
- Pages 352
- Format Paperback
- Dimensions 20.4cm x 2cm x 13.2cm
- Weight 0.258 kg
product description
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and co-author Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The authors show us how we can learn from an elite group of "superforecasters,"chosen based on their ability to beat other benchmarks, competitors, prediction markets, and the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, learning to think probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.